Apr 5 2015

Record 93.2 million Americans now not in the labor force: The not in the labor force rebound added 277,000 Americans in March alone.

In the last year alone we have added 2.1 million Americans to the “not in the labor force” category.  This mysterious category continues to grow and is having a field day with the employment data.  It is hard to ignore this number because it represents a large portion of our population that is simply not counted in the labor force data.  You have older Americans in this category but you also have a large number of people wanting work and simply not being able to find it.  You also have many relenting and taking up work in the low wage segment of our economy.  The unemployment rate would have you believe that this is a fantastic recovery but in March alone we added 277,000 to the not in the labor force category while only 126,000 jobs were created.  It is becoming more apparent there will be a strain on the one-third of Americans supporting the other two-thirds.

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Apr 1 2015

The economically lost generation of Millennials: taking a look at net worth data, living arrangements, and student debt.

Young Americans probably missed the memo regarding the economic recovery that has been taking place since 2009.  Apparently massive student debt, living at home, and a market full of low-wage jobs isn’t exactly the picture perfect ideal of a booming economy.  Millennials are facing an uphill battle.  The market has virtually eliminated the pension system and has reduced benefits to the barebones for most workers.  All of a sudden a large army of Americans are part of the “Uber” economy of freelance workers.  You have two systems clashing with one another when many baby boomers are trying to unload their assets to another generation that is simply not as wealthy or economically secure.  The recovery has been anything but even and the brunt of the financial damage has been taken on by the young.  If we look at the figures it paints a picture of a lost generation financially for young adults.

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Mar 28 2015

Largest for-profit sees half of its students vanish in last five years: For-profits under fire as value comes into question.

Many prospective students are starting to become savvier when it comes to looking at colleges.  For-profit colleges largely rely on federal funding and market to lower income Americans.  There is little oversight for the colleges in producing any sort of measurable result.  Many students are simply saddled with massive debt and a degree that has little value in the marketplace.  Yet it does seem like the tide is turning with some for-profits.  The University of Phoenix, the largest for-profit in the country has lost half of its students since 2010.  It is a big deal when you once enrolled 460,000 students and are now down to 213,000.  And it certainly wasn’t because of advertising.  In 2009 the school was spending around $100 million a year in marketing.  With $1.2 trillion in student debt outstanding this is a telling trend.  Is the University of Phoenix reflecting a bigger change in for-profits?

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Mar 25 2015

Bear markets happen more than people think: Since 1940 we have encountered 12 bear markets.

A bear market is defined by a 20 percent drop in the stock market from recent highs.  For some, the memory of the last crisis is now but a distant echo.  After all, we’ve been in a rather strong bull run for 6 years.  But bear markets happen more than most people think.  Since 1940 the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has had 12 bear markets.  On the flip side we have had 13 bull runs.  This current bull run has been particularly strong.  A good portion of this rally has come in easy money flowing into Wall Street courtesy of the Federal Reserve and from cutting employee benefits and wages keeping profits flowing up.  The market is looking extremely frothy.  Easy credit is permeating into the economy in all corners including subprime auto debt, a massive amount of student loans, and people tapping into credit cards to get by.  Why?  Half the country lives paycheck to paycheck despite the loud stock rally.  If we look at a chart of bear and bull runs, we are due for a bear market.

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Mar 22 2015

Driving our way into financial poverty with six-year car loans: Once a minority, six-year or longer auto loans now make up one third of all new loans.

Taking on debt for buying a car is a risky proposition.  Taking on subprime debt for buying a car is simply a bad financial decision.  The subprime loan market is booming for auto loans.  Cars can last longer, require basic maintenance, and typically run better than older models.  That brings up challenges for the auto industry that needs people buying newer and more expensive models.  But consumers always want the newest car or gadget so financing is the best way to get people to purchase an item.  This is why the iPhone which would sell for $600 or more is usually bundled with a contract instead of the consumer paying for it all at once.  You pay for it slowly over time.  The same applies to car loans.  However, the typical auto loan used to be 36 or 48 months.  Now, we see 72 months and 84 months (6 or 7 years!) of car payments.  This is such a bad financial move especially if you want to plan wisely for retirement.  Taking on a depreciating asset is just not a good move especially with risky debt.

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Mar 18 2015

Fed doublespeak and the dismantling of the middle class: Fed states dropping “patient” word doesn’t mean it is impatient on rates. In 1970 roughly 7 percent of all income was earned by the top 1 percent. Today it is closer to 20 percent.

The Fed has taken a page out of George Orwell’s 1984.  Doublespeak is all the rage and the Fed’s statements are analyzed as if sifting for gold.  Even when they don’t do anything markets jump.  The Fed sets the tone on our debt addiction.  The Fed dropped the word “patient” in terms of increasing interest rates but then goes on to say this doesn’t mean that it will be impatient.  Say what?  The Fed hints at tapering and balks because it claims there is “low inflation” but when we look at real inflation, the price of many items is shooting up dramatically.  Many of these items were staples of the middle class including an affordable college education, a home, and being able to earn a good wage.  Back in 1975 roughly 7 percent of all income earned went to the top 1 percent.  Today it is closer to 20 percent.  The last time it was this high was during the years prior to the Great Depression.

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Mar 15 2015

The next bailout will be with student loans: White House takes first steps in allowing a bankruptcy option for student debt. $1.2 trillion in student debt outstanding.

It truly is absurd when you hear people moralizing that people should pay their student debt when virtually every other debt class can be discharged through bankruptcy.  You can go to Las Vegas, run up $50,000 in credit card debt for a wild night, and if you are unable to pay it back, no problem.  Sure, your credit is ruined but no one is going to garnish your wages.  Can’t pay your mortgage?  Foreclosure.  Can’t pay your auto loan?  Repossession.  Can’t pay your student debt?  Lifelong debtors’ prison for you.  Student debt is the largest non-housing related debt class in the US.  It makes sense that bankruptcy should be an option here.  There is one problem, however.  Most of the debt is government backed meaning the bill is going to be taken on by the government (aka the people).  This is something that should have been done over a decade ago when total student debt was $200 billion, not $1.2 trillion like it is today.  However, rising delinquencies show something needs to be done here.

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