Comments on: Real Unemployment Situation: Approximately 26,000,000 Unemployed or Underemployed. Job Growth in $10 per Hour Jobs while $20 per Hour Jobs Disappear. http://www.mybudget360.com/real-unemployment-situation-approximately-26000000-unemployed-or-underemployed-job-growth-in-10-per-hour-jobs-while-20-per-hour-jobs-disappear/ Investing ideas for preserving wealth in a fluctuating market. Mon, 15 Mar 2010 04:47:09 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: JonnyL http://www.mybudget360.com/real-unemployment-situation-approximately-26000000-unemployed-or-underemployed-job-growth-in-10-per-hour-jobs-while-20-per-hour-jobs-disappear/comment-page-1/#comment-16991 JonnyL Sun, 13 Dec 2009 12:53:32 +0000 http://www.mybudget360.com/?p=832#comment-16991 The commentators seem to think we are heading for a service based industy. Ummmm comon guys peel off the surface layer. On the surface its a changing of a casino regulated financial sector. But it goes much deeper. High priced manufacturing products, which means high paying manufacturing jobs, have been over produced and the market is oversaturated. So they must be fired... People must sell the excess supply of goods, bought by credit, over time. Lots of people fired, all at once... but to prevent this the fed inserted stimulus to prevent a collapse of how the system works. Stimulus was created liquidity to fix failed balance sheets at the bank. Instead of a collapse, it has become a gradual decay until equilibrium, which will never be acheived with "created" money constantly being pumped into the system. Collapse is inevitable. 1 year of growth (which is just increasing GDP nominally. Not only that but GDP is a bad way of assessing a countries economic wellbeing) then a decline like nothing we have ever seen. As the housing market fails to return to any sense of normalcy and commercial real estate debts come due, mass defaults will occur and collapse will occur. Commercial real estate debts maturing will increase between now and 2012 (I read somewhere its been 260 worldwide commercial bankruptcies just this year). As these debts have no new equity, because nobody has any cash to buy anything, there will be no money to be made, therefore the bank cant refinance because of the lack of equity. They will be forced into forclosure, and this will happen at an exponential rate. The pensions promised to the employees are not there because companies are going bankrupt forcing the baby boomers to continue longer which affects new workforce entrants screwing with the balance of jobs gained and jobs lost... welcome to generation unretired (baby boomers) and the lost generation (? - 27)...these first few bubbles (the housing, the stock market) are just blips compared to what is down the road. I hope that i am wrong every day... but the evidence keeps building up. Although all of this is bad news I am optimistic, New deregulations of communication have occurred and new open source discussion tools are being created right now (scribblelive.com, googlewave.com). This will hopefully allow more transparency of true and valid information to be brought into th spotlight. What im seeing is a tool like wikipedia but for discussion boards, most viewed + highest rated discussions, hopefully this will allow people to make more educated decisions. The commentators seem to think we are heading for a service based industy. Ummmm comon guys peel off the surface layer. On the surface its a changing of a casino regulated financial sector. But it goes much deeper. High priced manufacturing products, which means high paying manufacturing jobs, have been over produced and the market is oversaturated. So they must be fired… People must sell the excess supply of goods, bought by credit, over time. Lots of people fired, all at once… but to prevent this the fed inserted stimulus to prevent a collapse of how the system works. Stimulus was created liquidity to fix failed balance sheets at the bank. Instead of a collapse, it has become a gradual decay until equilibrium, which will never be acheived with “created” money constantly being pumped into the system. Collapse is inevitable. 1 year of growth (which is just increasing GDP nominally. Not only that but GDP is a bad way of assessing a countries economic wellbeing) then a decline like nothing we have ever seen. As the housing market fails to return to any sense of normalcy and commercial real estate debts come due, mass defaults will occur and collapse will occur. Commercial real estate debts maturing will increase between now and 2012 (I read somewhere its been 260 worldwide commercial bankruptcies just this year). As these debts have no new equity, because nobody has any cash to buy anything, there will be no money to be made, therefore the bank cant refinance because of the lack of equity. They will be forced into forclosure, and this will happen at an exponential rate.

The pensions promised to the employees are not there because companies are going bankrupt forcing the baby boomers to continue longer which affects new workforce entrants screwing with the balance of jobs gained and jobs lost… welcome to generation unretired (baby boomers) and the lost generation (? – 27)…these first few bubbles (the housing, the stock market) are just blips compared to what is down the road.

I hope that i am wrong every day… but the evidence keeps building up.

Although all of this is bad news I am optimistic, New deregulations of communication have occurred and new open source discussion tools are being created right now (scribblelive.com, googlewave.com). This will hopefully allow more transparency of true and valid information to be brought into th spotlight. What im seeing is a tool like wikipedia but for discussion boards, most viewed + highest rated discussions, hopefully this will allow people to make more educated decisions.

]]> By: Pim http://www.mybudget360.com/real-unemployment-situation-approximately-26000000-unemployed-or-underemployed-job-growth-in-10-per-hour-jobs-while-20-per-hour-jobs-disappear/comment-page-1/#comment-11660 Pim Sat, 08 Aug 2009 03:32:39 +0000 http://www.mybudget360.com/?p=832#comment-11660 I agree that we are turning into a services country.. But isn't that what Bill Clinton said he wanted for us???After he signed NAFTA...I believe I am right.. Good article, very good comparative. I agree that we are turning into a services country..
But isn’t that what Bill Clinton said he wanted for us???After he signed NAFTA…I believe I am right..
Good article, very good comparative.

]]> By: Brett http://www.mybudget360.com/real-unemployment-situation-approximately-26000000-unemployed-or-underemployed-job-growth-in-10-per-hour-jobs-while-20-per-hour-jobs-disappear/comment-page-1/#comment-9062 Brett Tue, 09 Jun 2009 23:48:12 +0000 http://www.mybudget360.com/?p=832#comment-9062 Good article. It is interesting to consider that we have done away with domestic manufacturing because our wages are too high (relative to some countries), and our wages are too high as a result of bubble economies (finance, real-estate & services for those people with high wages from the bubbles)! Good article.
It is interesting to consider that we have done away with domestic manufacturing because our wages are too high (relative to some countries), and our wages are too high as a result of bubble economies (finance, real-estate & services for those people with high wages from the bubbles)!

]]> By: CD Rates Guy http://www.mybudget360.com/real-unemployment-situation-approximately-26000000-unemployed-or-underemployed-job-growth-in-10-per-hour-jobs-while-20-per-hour-jobs-disappear/comment-page-1/#comment-9050 CD Rates Guy Tue, 09 Jun 2009 17:14:43 +0000 http://www.mybudget360.com/?p=832#comment-9050 America is turning into a service-based economy, and things aren't looking too good. Well-written post. America is turning into a service-based economy, and things aren’t looking too good. Well-written post.

]]> By: Mark M. http://www.mybudget360.com/real-unemployment-situation-approximately-26000000-unemployed-or-underemployed-job-growth-in-10-per-hour-jobs-while-20-per-hour-jobs-disappear/comment-page-1/#comment-8973 Mark M. Sun, 07 Jun 2009 22:03:47 +0000 http://www.mybudget360.com/?p=832#comment-8973 Nice article that would benefit from a follow up that investigates why we are shifting from a production based to a service based economy -and it's not all about China. I'm referring to something even broader. Forgive me for the generality, but essentially the last 150 years has seen: 1850-Trains 1880-Electricity 1900-Industrial Revolution 1910-Auto/Planes 1920 -WWI 1930-GD 1940-WWII 1950-Plastic 1960-Space 1970-Computers The refrigerator is not yet even 100 years old! Sadly, Economies are "bubbles". Even slow growth is not enough to sustain the standard of living for the masses, especially in the long run. Large scale, pent up, aspirational demand is what is needed, but demand for what? I-Pods? Who (in sufficiently large numbers) still needs a new....anything??? I posed this question elsewhere and two the top three responses were: Cold Fusion, Internet and Green Tech, but realistically, only something like Cold Fusion, and all the new products it would create , really has the "shock and awe" factor needed. Otherwise, Mexico is the future for the world where 40% live in relative splendor while 60% live in "comparative" poverty. Nice article that would benefit from a follow up that investigates why we are shifting from a production based to a service based economy -and it’s not all about China. I’m referring to something even broader.

Forgive me for the generality, but essentially the last 150 years has seen:
1850-Trains
1880-Electricity
1900-Industrial Revolution
1910-Auto/Planes
1920 -WWI
1930-GD
1940-WWII
1950-Plastic
1960-Space
1970-Computers

The refrigerator is not yet even 100 years old!

Sadly, Economies are “bubbles”. Even slow growth is not enough to sustain the standard of living for the masses, especially in the long run. Large scale, pent up, aspirational demand is what is needed, but demand for what? I-Pods? Who (in sufficiently large numbers) still needs a new….anything???

I posed this question elsewhere and two the top three responses were: Cold Fusion, Internet and Green Tech, but realistically, only something like Cold Fusion, and all the new products it would create , really has the “shock and awe” factor needed.

Otherwise, Mexico is the future for the world where 40% live in relative splendor while 60% live in “comparative” poverty.

]]> By: Finance Junkie http://www.mybudget360.com/real-unemployment-situation-approximately-26000000-unemployed-or-underemployed-job-growth-in-10-per-hour-jobs-while-20-per-hour-jobs-disappear/comment-page-1/#comment-8970 Finance Junkie Sun, 07 Jun 2009 18:01:52 +0000 http://www.mybudget360.com/?p=832#comment-8970 Beautifully well written. Highlighting the disparity between $20 and $10 jobs is important. Additionally, the U-6 total unemployed/underemployed rate doesn't normally get advertised like it should. Over the next decade the liesure sector job growth should deteriorate since household disposable income is eroding with the trend of jobs switching from $20+ to $10-$12 range. Beautifully well written. Highlighting the disparity between $20 and $10 jobs is important. Additionally, the U-6 total unemployed/underemployed rate doesn’t normally get advertised like it should.

Over the next decade the liesure sector job growth should deteriorate since household disposable income is eroding with the trend of jobs switching from $20+ to $10-$12 range.

]]> By: The Weakonomist http://www.mybudget360.com/real-unemployment-situation-approximately-26000000-unemployed-or-underemployed-job-growth-in-10-per-hour-jobs-while-20-per-hour-jobs-disappear/comment-page-1/#comment-8940 The Weakonomist Sat, 06 Jun 2009 18:42:46 +0000 http://www.mybudget360.com/?p=832#comment-8940 This is a good analysis of the jobs situation. I hadn't really thought about the growth being in low wage employment. The one thing I'd add is that the jobs in high finance aren't going anywhere. There are some gone but for the lost part they are going to be fine. Where we're going to get killed is the loss of manufacturing jobs. GL and others have contributed a lit to the middle class and when they're layed off they end up working at walmart. That is great analysis though. This is a good analysis of the jobs situation. I hadn’t really thought about the growth being in low wage employment. The one thing I’d add is that the jobs in high finance aren’t going anywhere. There are some gone but for the lost part they are going to be fine. Where we’re going to get killed is the loss of manufacturing jobs. GL and others have contributed a lit to the middle class and when they’re layed off they end up working at walmart.

That is great analysis though.

]]>