NAR: How a 4% Quarterly Gain was Really a 30 % Drop. The New Housing Math.

You would think that someone would double check their own data given the situation in the housing market before reporting a statewide gain.  You would assume that an organization that is the de facto standard bearer for Realtors would make sure that data accuracy would be the pinnacle of their mission.  This is not the case.  Last month the N.A.R. came out saying that New Jersey was one of three states that saw a slight up tick in sales during the first quarter.

This week the Realtor group came out with a huge correction saying that their initial assessment that sales increased by 4 percent really turned out to be a 30 percent decline!  Talk about putting yourself in an awkward position:

 

“(New Jersey Star Ledger) When the National Association of Realtors issued its first-quarter report on the health of the housing market last month, New Jersey was singled out as one of only three states that saw the volume of home sales increase during the first three months of the year.

On Friday, the Realtors’ group issued a huge correction, saying that instead of a slight increase, New Jersey’s housing market actually saw a 30 percent drop in home sales during the first quarter compared with the same period last year.

“It happened in the crunching of the numbers,” said NAR spokesman Lucien Salvant. “It was just a mistake and we owned up to it.”

As it turns out, only 114,100 homes were sold across the state during the first quarter – nearly a third less than the 163,000 sales recorded in the first three months of 2007.

Jeffrey Otteau, president of the East Brunswick research firm Otteau Valuation Group, said he suspected the NAR’s original numbers were out of whack when they were issued May 13.

“When they came out with that report, we turned it inside out and upside down and we couldn’t make any sense of it,” Otteau said.

Based on his own calculations, home sales in New Jersey fell 26 percent during the first quarter of this year compared with the first quarter of 2007.

Otteau said things picked up in April. According to his figures, April home sales increased 9.3 percent from March – the first March-to-April increase since 2005.

“The housing market in New Jersey really is beginning to show signs of improvement, so that is still valid,” he said.

And, according to Otteau’s April calcuations, the average house now sits on the market for 10 months, down from 13 months in January.”

Thankfully some people are taking the time to verify bias in the data.  A housing group being biased for housing?  We’ve never heard such a thing!

If you enjoyed this post click here to subscribe to a complete feed and stay up to date with today’s challenging market!

 

If you enjoyed this post click here to subscribe to a complete feed and stay up to date with today’s challenging market!