Nov 9 2009

The Balance Sheet Recession: $4.2 Trillion Lost in Residential Real Estate Value. Yet Mortgage Debt Down by $140 Billion.

What we are experiencing is a balance sheet recession.  The reality of our current economic funk is highlighted by the growing unemployment rate and the diminishing purchasing power of many Americans.  What is going to make this economic crisis drag out like a painful Hollywood divorce is the inability to reconcile the past with our […]

Nov 5 2009

If Incomes are Down, Where is the Economic Spending coming from? Industrial Production Still Lower, Credit Contraction, and Average Work Week at Record Low. Wells Fargo Considering Converting Option ARMs to Interest Only Loans.

With 8 million jobs lost in this great recession, it is rather surprising to see so many people enter into a deep capture mode of believing in a quick and efficient recovery.  If we look at data in the misery index, the average American has a hard time swallowing the jagged economic recovery pill.  They […]

Sep 15 2009

S&P 500 is The New Bubble: Current S&P 500 Value is Betting on Return to Bubble Peak, Housing Mania, and 4 Percent Unemployment.

One question that seems to pop up every so often is whether the S&P 500 is overvalued.  To put it simply, it is hyper-valued.  From the 666 low reached in March the index has rallied 57 percent.  Unfortunately much of the rally is based on temporary government stimulus, the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve trashing […]

Sep 10 2009

California Lost Decade of Employment: Bulk of Recent Income Gains went to Wealthiest Californians. 76.8 Percent of Adjusted Gross Income Gains between 2006 and 2007 went to the Wealthiest Fifth of California Personal Income Taxpayers.

California may now have one of the distinct misfortunes of enjoying a lost decade of job growth.  This not only applies to the battered economy of California, but to the nation as well.  To put the magnitude of the current recession in perspective, the only other time in economic history to see a contraction wipe […]

Aug 22 2009

S&P 500 Over Priced: With 97% of Companies Reporting Q2 Earnings the PE Ratio is Now at 129. The Most Over Hyped Market Rally Ever.

There is probably no better indicator of market volatility than the current price to earnings ratio of the S&P 500.  The market volatility is spectacular and we are seeing more gyrations in this recession than we did during the Great Depression.  Since March when the S&P 500 touched the 666 mark, the rally has boosted […]

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