May 9 2011

The financial bubble that is still popping – Home prices enter a deep double dip because household incomes are still in a rut. Housing bubbles in Los Angeles and San Francisco persist while Miami and Phoenix metro areas face double digit annual price declines.

Some people are stunned that home prices continue to sink as if a lead weight was placed on the value of housing.  The mainstream press never sliced and diced the minor jump in prices we had last year because much of the increase occurred around tax credit gimmicks and the Federal Reserve using artificially low […]

Apr 9 2011

The housing gamble: What if home prices remained stagnant until 2020? 6 charts laying out the argument for stagnant or declining home prices for another 10 years. Peak in dual income households, home prices still inflated relative to incomes, Federal Reserve unable to hold mortgage rates low forever.

What would happen if home prices remain stagnant for another decade?  It is hard to imagine that the cornerstone of the American dream would somehow become a bad investment for the next decade.  For decades every generation was conditioned into believing that housing was the best investment a family could make.  For many it provided […]

Apr 2 2011

The financial elixir that is falling home prices – Lower home prices good for the economy – Median U.S. home price down to $157,000 taking up 3 times the annual household income instead of the bubble peak of 5. Adding jobs while home prices move lower? Banks big winners when home prices remain inflated.

It is interesting that in the short-term horizon of our economy falling home prices are occurring while jobs are being added.  The banking sector during the early days of the crisis made it abundantly clear that falling home prices would lead to economic collapse.  Yet the opposite is occurring. Why?  First, inflated home prices eat […]

Mar 3 2011

Phoenix real estate breaks a record with 50 percent of all home sales coming from all cash investors. Locals barely can buy with FHA insured loans. Can a desert market dependent on cheap oil and survive in the $100+ a barrel world?

The Phoenix real estate market is a fascinating case examination of an area guided by FHA loans for first time buyers and all cash investors purchasing 50 percent of properties.  In January of 2011, the latest month of stunning data, 1 out of every 2 homes sold went to an all cash buyer.  We are […]

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