Dec 8 2012

Disappearing US labor force and goodbye to retirement – Adding 146,000 jobs while 542,000 drop out of the labor force. Understanding the changes in the unemployment rate.

The recent drop in the unemployment rate was largely due to the number of people dropping out of the labor force.  I’ve noticed that more people in the press are picking up on the important nuances when it comes to the employment figures.  For example, in the last month those “not in the labor force” […]

May 3 2012

Contagion and the viral spreading of debt based systems – CEO pay at regional banks surge on average to $10.5 million thanks to bailouts while austerity is forced onto the middle class.

The biggest economy in the world just reached a new peak with their unemployment rate.  We are not talking about the United States but the massive block in the Eurozone.  The unemployment rate in the 17 country block reached a new all-time high at 10.9 percent as austerity measures are being used to combat massive […]

Mar 2 2012

Hitting the credit card wall – Credit card debt contracts 17 percent as the grand American household deleveraging continues. Average household with credit card debt carries $16,000 at an average rate of 15% – Real broke housewives. Orange County California witnesses a 600 percent jump in bankruptcies.

Credit card debt has become a big financial albatross for many American families.  According to the Federal Reserve Survey on Consumer Finance over 176 million credit cardholders exist in the United States.  This is an amazing figure when you actually think about what a credit card is.  A credit card essentially allows you to spend […]

May 13 2011

The endgame of the credit card nation – 40 year bull market in revolving debt expansion comes to a sudden halt. U.S. consumers on average have 4 credit cards with 1 out of 7 having 10 or more.

Credit cards are the gateway financial opiate of choice for many spenders.  Banks understand that if consumers begin mistaking debt for actual wealth then this would lead to more willingness to borrow on bigger ticket items like cars and homes as the appetite for credit expands.  This psychological gamble paid off multiple dividends over the […]

Apr 2 2011

The financial elixir that is falling home prices – Lower home prices good for the economy – Median U.S. home price down to $157,000 taking up 3 times the annual household income instead of the bubble peak of 5. Adding jobs while home prices move lower? Banks big winners when home prices remain inflated.

It is interesting that in the short-term horizon of our economy falling home prices are occurring while jobs are being added.  The banking sector during the early days of the crisis made it abundantly clear that falling home prices would lead to economic collapse.  Yet the opposite is occurring. Why?  First, inflated home prices eat […]

Aug 3 2010

Commercial real estate maturities will peak in 2012 – $350 billion in loans coming due and hundreds of additional bank failures. Bank lending in the CRE market collapsing.

The commercial real estate disaster is sinking banks on a weekly basis.  Talk of a V-shape recovery is now largely a moot point since we are past the point of a quick and strong recovery.  The question now revolves around what we are going to face for the next few years.  Commercial real estate really […]

Jun 2 2010

The growing condo shadow inventory – CityCenter in Las Vegas and Lexington Park in Chicago. The shadow inventory that is crushing commercial real estate.

There is a massive amount of vacant inventory sitting across the United States.  A good portion of this is viewable to the public but a large amount of this inventory is simply hidden from data scrutiny.  Last week we talked about the commercial real estate bust coming to the most expensive region in California of […]

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