Apr 19 2010

The Future of U.S. Housing – Projections of Household Formation, Loan Modification Data, 500,000 Option ARMs Still Active, and a Decade of Stagnation.

Take what you knew about projecting housing for the last fifty years and throw it out the window.  The big problem with using models post-World War II is that they base growth on a baby boomer population that was the largest affluent middle class cohort known to the world.  That model is now disappearing.  Some […]

Mar 20 2010

3 Underground Real Estate Practices Moving the Market – Short Sale Fraud, Squatter Stimulus, and Buying Before Foreclosing.

In the early days of the housing bubble here in California and other bubble states a handful of people were raising alarm bells that mortgage fraud was occurring at unprecedented levels.  The housing industry initially came out skeptically stating this was only a handful of wayward people. As it turns out, it was the vast […]

Mar 1 2010

Commercial Real Estate Problems in Financial Purgatory – $3.4 Trillion Debt Market and Expansion of Interest Only Loans to Finance CRE Deals. CRE Debt Found its way into Pension Funds.

The Congressional Oversight Panel put out a daunting report regarding the commercial real estate market.  Commercial real estate is an enormous market with $3.4 trillion in debt secured by office space, malls, and apartment complexes to name a few examples.  Commercial real estate does a fairly good job as being a barometer for the actual […]

Feb 13 2010

Commercial Real Estate Collapse Bigger than Subprime Implosion – Why is the Market Ignoring the $3.5 Trillion Commercial Real Estate Market Implosion? Pricing in Another Bailout.

Most people that follow real estate even at a cursory level have heard of the problems in commercial real estate.  The enormous $3.5 trillion market in commercial real estate (CRE) has deep and profound problems.  At the peak CRE was estimated to be valued at $6.5 trillion.  Today the value is closer to $3.5 trillion […]

Jan 21 2010

Oil has Crushed the Suburban Homeowner Dream – How $75 a Barrel Oil no longer Supports New Home Construction in Distant Areas. Case study of Riverside and San Bernardino Foreclosures and Housing.

The peak of $147 for a barrel of oil seems to be a long gone memory.  Yet oil per barrel is still up over $75, a long cry from the $20 barrel many became accustomed to.  I have been mulling this issue over for a few months because few people are even considering oil prices […]

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