Jul 30 2010

40 years of housing data – U.S. homes still too expensive for typical families. In 1970 the median home could be purchased with 657 ounces of gold. Today, it only requires 155 ounces. The erosion of the U.S. dollar

The last 40 years have seen the U.S. housing market transform into a market largely driven by incredible amounts of debt.  The credit card companies understood the basic notion that the monthly payment drove most financial decisions.  Even though people purchase a home with a 30 year mortgage, the implicit understanding was that in a […]

Jun 16 2010

Gear up for another lost decade in real estate. Housing will remain stagnate from 2010 to 2020. Demographic shifts, higher mortgage rates, and shifting consumer taste in real estate.

The dynamics for housing moving forward point to a very bleak future and a potential lost decade yet again from 2010 to 2020.  Housing has a treacherous path moving forward and deep down demographic shifts will keep a lid on any significant housing appreciation moving forward.  The economy is in the process of deleveraging from […]

May 27 2010

Most over valued region in San Francisco gets a taste of the commercial real estate bust. $3 trillion in loans starting to implode at a faster rate. Why commercial real estate will plunge FDIC insured banks into closure. Bought for $415,000 per apartment unit.

The commercial real estate bust is in full swing.  This $3 trillion mortgage market is standing to push hundreds of banks into failure and adding additional strain to the embattled FDIC.  Commercial real estate (CRE) is a good indicator of where things are heading economically because it is a reflection of what revenues are being […]

May 25 2010

Why buying a home today makes little financial sense. 3 reasons why taking on a mortgage in today’s market is deep in speculation. Are homes still over valued? Tax benefit not as big as you would expect.

It is hard for many to believe that home prices in many of our largest cities are still overvalued.  Part of this distortion has to come from living in a decade long housing bubble that has adjusted the perception of value and price.  But in many areas home prices are still much too high relative […]

May 17 2010

Shadow inventory sales for years to come – 1.6 million distress sales in 2010, 1.6 million in 2011, and 1.5 million in 2012. By summer of 2011 REO pipeline will rise to 536,000.

Wall Street as usual enjoys denying facts until they become so obvious to the common person on the street.  By then, it is too late to react.  For example, subprime wasn’t a problem until it lit the fuse that set the global economy into a downward tailspin.  Analysts at Barclays Capital are now coming out […]

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