Dec 23 2008

U.S. Treasury Summary of Receipts and Outlays for the U.S. Government: If Your Budget Looked Like this, You would be out on the Street.

It comes as no surprise that the U.S. government spends more than it takes in.  We all know this.  But what are the funding sources for the U.S. government?  Meaning, who cuts their monthly pay?  It is easy to get caught up in the talk of large numbers but you have to think of the budget of our country as you would any other budget.  Most Americans are trying to make it buy with wages that are stagnant while the government spends as if it has a no-limit American Express card.

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Dec 22 2008

Dow Jones Industrial Average on Pace for top 3 Worst Performing Year since 1896: Understanding one of the Most Followed Industrial Averages.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is closely followed by those here at home but also those around the world.  It is the oldest continuing U.S. market index.  The DJIA is the best-known market indicator simply because it has one of the longest histories and many have grown accustomed to following the index.  Since the U.S. Treasury and Fed want to punish savers and force people into the markets or to spend, it is important to understand what moves the markets.  There are many indicators that give a better overall glimpse of the market yet the DJIA is still closely followed.

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Dec 20 2008

The Most Comprehensive California Housing Market Analysis: Looking at 11.5 Million Households and 32 Counties. Investing in California Housing is a Complicated Calculus.

The California housing market has had its worst year on record.  2008 will go down as one of the most difficult and volatile economic years in history.  With that said, there is still a lingering notion or profound desire for bargain hunting.  Many articles now try to call a bottom in the stock markets by looking at market fundamentals.  Similarly many are now trying to call a bottom in housing in particular the California housing market.

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Dec 18 2008

How Does Oil Impact the Economy? 3 Major Areas of Economic Consequence: The Impact on Inflation, Consumer Spending, and Auto Sales.

2008 will go down as the year with the highest market volatility.  Crisis after crisis seemed to hit us like a continuous barrage of waves from the ocean of economic news.  The housing market continued to collapse resembling a housing market so weak, we have to go back to the Great Depression to find a similar time.  The credit markets are still in complete disarray.  $50 trillion in global wealth has evaporated in one year.  The automakers have fallen on tough times and emblematic symbols of American manufacturing like GM and Ford stand steps away from being dismantled.  In 2008 we also saw the incredible oil bubble peak and burst so dramatically that it caused many to pause.

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Dec 17 2008

U.S. Treasury and Fed Determined to Destroy Dollar and Force Savers to Spend: Investing in a Government Hoping for a U.S. Dollar Collapse.

Tuesday’s action by the Federal Reserve has placed us into the history books.  The Fed cut the federal funds rate to an unprecedented 0.25% and gave a rather firm statement that they are prepared to keep the rate at this low level as long as the markets deem it necessary.  When asked why they didn’t cut rates down to 0 a Fed official replied that it would help the credit markets run more smoothly.  The markets don’t believe that.  In fact, the markets have been trading near the zero percent mark for some time now.

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Dec 15 2008

Gross Domestic Product: 40 Percent of the United States GDP comes from 5 States; California, Texas, New York, Florida, and Illinois.

Our gross domestic product contracted in the third quarter of 2008 and is contracting in the forth quarter.  There is very little doubt surrounding that.  The National Bureau of Economic Research put the start date of our current recession at December of 2007.  Simply looking at the employment patterns and trends it appears that this recession will be the worst on record since World War II.  Another reason why this recession will be so painful is that 40 percent of our national GDP comes from 5 states, many that are in painful contractions.

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Dec 13 2008

Recessions: The Last 5 Recessions and Measuring how long we will have job losses. This will be the worst recession since World War II.

Forecasting is a tricky road to walk on in the investing world.  That is why trying to predict future job losses is more of an educated guess.  In fact, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) only recently stated that we were in fact in a recession.  I have put out an estimate that by the end of 2009 we will see the U-6 unemployment number shoot up to 19%.

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