Nov 28 2008

Citigroup Analyst Predicts $2,000 an Ounce Gold in next 2 Years: Another Stupid Move by U.S. Government Where we Should Have Invested the Bailout Money in Gold Bars.

So what do we get for our massive bailout of Citigroup?  How about an ominous warning that global markets will collapse or we will face massive inflation.  Either way, the suggestion from one analyst at Citi is gold will go to $2,000 in the next 2 years.  We just backstopped $306 billion in toxic mortgages from Citi and this is what we get?

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Nov 26 2008

Dow up 1,174 Points in 4 Days: A Gain of 15.5%. Last Time we Had a 4 Day Gain this Big? August of 1932.

We have seen an unprecedented 4-day rally in the stock market.  This is rather astounding given the parade of bad news. New home sales hit half century lows.  Consumer spending has fallen to lows not seen since 2001.  Unemployment claims are running at multi-decade lows.

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Nov 26 2008

$8 Trillion for the Financial Bailout. Nice Holiday Gift.

As if we needed any more evidence that this financial bubble is one for the history books.  The government has now committed the American taxpayer to roughly $8 trillion.  We’ve already used up over $2 trillion and the risk is absolutely amazing.  Can you believe the state of California is now a higher credit risk than Slovakia?  Yes we are now going off into unknown territory.  Take a look at this disturbing graph from the New York Times:

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Nov 21 2008

Family Budget: How to go Broke on $100,000 a year. Why the Middle Class has a hard time Living in Expensive Urban Areas.

One of the challenges during this economic crisis is budgeting.  As much as we hear about the housing collapse or the stock market seesawing like a playground, we rarely get a glimpse into the actual budget of real live Americans.  Sure we know housing is expensive.  We all intuitively knew that $147 a barrel oil was not going to be good on our economy.  But how does this translate into the monthly budget of a family trying to get by?

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Nov 19 2008

The Menace that is Deflation: 5 Specific Areas Where Deflation is Already Showing up.

Be very afraid of the “D” word now making the rounds in economic circles.  Today the Federal Reserve hinted that we are now tipping into the prospect of deflation.  This is very bad from their perspective.  In fact, it is a horrifying prospect for the Federal Reserve since every action they have taken in this decade has had the desired outcome of inflation.  Why would the Fed want inflation?  Inflation would make our structured debts cheaper as time goes by since the price level of most items in the economy would rise and the debt would remain static.  First, let us get our definitions clear.

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Nov 18 2008

Southern California Home Prices at a 67 Month Low: Sales Jump Unseasonably due to Major Price Cuts.

The recent data for the Southern California housing market was released today.  A pattern is starting to emerge.  Low price homes are helping to increase sales and lower priced areas are also pulling the median price down for the entire region.  This is symbolic of the drastic price reduction we have witnessed over the past year.  Over half of the homes sold in Southern California last month were foreclosure resales.  These of course will have lower prices simply because they are being sold at rock bottom prices.  Lenders and banks with a large number of REOs cannot be picky if they want to move homes.

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