Feb 2 2010

Stock Market Casino Royale – S&P 500 is overvalued by 100 Percent – Earnings do not Justify Current S&P 500 Levels. Financial Markets setting up for Another Correction.

When I look at the S&P 500 like most people do, you would expect that this wide cross-section of companies in the U.S. would reflect an accurate measure of the true health of industries in our economy.  Yet the S&P 500 is fully disconnected from any historical measures of valuations.  It is startling to see […]

Dec 10 2009

S&P 500 Overvalued by 100 Percent: Estimated Price-Earnings Inflation Adjusted Ratio does not Reflect Actual Earnings. VIX now Back to August 2007 Levels. Bank of America P/E Ratio over 500?

It is hard to justify the 1,100 mark for the S&P 500.  The 676 low of March, as disastrous as it may have felt, actually reflected a more accurate measure of earnings potential of the 500 S&P companies.  The S&P 500 is a good index because it measures 500 companies with a current collective market […]

Oct 31 2009

Dow Jones Largest Fall Since April of 2009: Current Rally based on V-Shaped Recovery Hopes and Sustained Spending. Credit Card Mail Offers Fall from 2.1 billion in Q3 of 2006 to 391 million in Q3 of 2009.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 249 points on Friday was a significant turning point in this rally because it came on the back of a 200 point jump just the subsequent day.  On Thursday the GDP numbers were released showing a strong 3.5 percent jump.  Yet digging into the data, 1.6 percent of this […]

Sep 15 2009

S&P 500 is The New Bubble: Current S&P 500 Value is Betting on Return to Bubble Peak, Housing Mania, and 4 Percent Unemployment.

One question that seems to pop up every so often is whether the S&P 500 is overvalued.  To put it simply, it is hyper-valued.  From the 666 low reached in March the index has rallied 57 percent.  Unfortunately much of the rally is based on temporary government stimulus, the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve trashing […]

Aug 3 2009

The Ultimate Sucker’s Rally: Record Breaking 50 Percent Stock Market Rally in 5 Months: Extreme Market Volatility Occurs in Deep Economic Recessions and Depressions. From 676 to 1002.

Incredible.  We have never seen a stock market rally like this in all the history for the S&P 500.  In no other time has the S&P index run up nearly 50 percent in the matter of 5 months.  Extreme market volatility is the ultimate sign of market distress.  Think for a minute and ask yourself […]

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