Mar 25 2008

Housing Market: Case-Shiller 10 City Index Worst Drop Since 1987.

The Case-Shiller Index, which tracks same home sales over a period of time instead of aggregate median prices per month, has dropped nearly 10.7 percent on a year over year basis.  Most analyst favor the Case-Shiller Index because it looks at a single home and tracks it historically over time giving a better and more reliable indicator of the health of a home’s value.  The drop is the largest drop ever experienced by the 20 city index since its inception in 2000.  The index also tracks a 10 city index which dropped an astounding 11.4 percent which is a record drop since data started being tracked in 1987.Nearly all cities in the index reported losses.  Here is a brief list of some of the year over year drops:

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Mar 17 2008

Bear Stearns: The Rise and Fall of the Mighty Bear.

Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you are probably aware of the JP Morgan/Fed orchestrated bailout. The amazing thing about this entire situation is how quickly Bear Stearns went under. In the matter of one year, the once fifth largest investment bank was bought out for a pittance of its once mighty price. Bear Stearns has a long and storied legacy going back to 1923. Bear has lived through numerous recessions and the Great Depression. The company has approximately 14,000 people and as of last November, was generating a net income of $233 million.

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Mar 13 2008

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Mar 9 2008

Warren Buffet: Dow 24,000,000. Impossible Returns in an Impossible Stock Market. California Housing $3.4 Million Median.

Many of you I am sure have followed the investment advice from the richest man in the world, Mr. Warren Buffet. There is good reason to follow the Oracle from Omaha. Take a look at historical returns from his Berkshire Hathaway:

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Mar 3 2008

Why Credit is not the Same as Cash: Thornburg Mortgage and Margin Calls.

As many of you may or may not be aware, the next big thing that is pushing mortgage lenders and financials into the ground is margin calls. What is occurring in the market is companies leveraged to the heavens, are now realizing the stark difference between liquid and illiquid assets. Take a look at Thornburg Mortgage:

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Feb 29 2008

Where should you put Your Money? Investing in a Recessionary Environment.

In two days, the market relinquished all weekly gains and looking at market fundamentals there really is very little doubt as to why this occurred. This past week, the two large mortgage behemoths Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac announced record quarterly losses. We also got a report that the housing market dropped at its fastest rate in 2007 from anything that we have on record. But there are areas that are on a massive tear and will continue going up because of inherent imbalances in our economy. In Investing in Foreign Currencies: Recession Proof Investing we discussed various ways you could protect your portfolio from recessionary forces.
First, we need to highlight what our forecast is for 2008. Read More

Feb 25 2008

The Scariest Graph Ever: Home Mortgage Debt and Consumer Credit.

As the housing market continues its crash and burn path, it is sometimes difficult to put into words the incredible amount of mortgage debt floating around in the market. Since the 90s, mortgage debt has exploded and has followed a celestial trajectory to the moon. Mortgage debt has grown since 1997 for over a decade nearly unabated. Take a look at this chart below:

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